A groundbreaking study from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Roorkee has uncovered an alarming Western Disturbances shift, with these vital weather systems—traditionally tied to winter snowfall—now exerting greater influence during pre-monsoon months, heightening threats to climate resilience, disaster preparedness, and water security in northern India.

Published in the International Journal of Climatology, the research reveals that Western Disturbances are becoming more active beyond the cold season, traveling longer distances, absorbing higher moisture, and delivering intensified precipitation from March to May.

This Western Disturbances shift, driven by climate warming, is reshaping precipitation patterns across the Himalayas and adjacent areas.

Analyzing over seven decades of atmospheric and rainfall data, researchers identified significant changes in Western Disturbances pathways, including extended travel, enhanced moisture uptake, and stronger upper-level winds, which amplify rainfall intensity outside the traditional winter period.

The alarming Western Disturbances shift elevates risks of flash floods, landslides, and extreme rainfall in the fragile Himalayan terrain, while disrupting long-term water availability for downstream regions.

“Extreme events, such as the 2023 Himachal flood and the recent 2025 Uttarakhand flood, reflect the growing influence of these disturbances,” said Spandita Mitra, PhD Scholar at IIT Roorkee’s Department of Hydrology.

Lead investigator Prof. Ankit Agarwal added: “Our analysis shows that Western Disturbances are undergoing significant seasonal and structural changes, particularly during the pre-monsoon period. This transition has far-reaching implications for water resources, extreme weather events, and disaster vulnerability in the Himalayas.”

Prof K K Pant, Director of IIT Roorkee, emphasized the need for proactive measures: “Scientific evidence such as this is crucial for rethinking climate resilience in ecologically sensitive regions. This study reinforces our commitment to translating insights into actionable strategies for sustainable development.”

The researchers call for updated climate models, dynamic forecasting, and region-specific risk assessments to address the evolving patterns under a warming climate.